Archive
Nov 14, 2024
Time to Take a Breather???
The stock market is showing signs that it’s getting “tired,” so it could be due for a bit of a pullback soon…which would actually be normal and healthy.Nov 13, 2024
CPI: Road Block or Rocket Fuel?
This morning’s CPI data could/should have an extremely important impact on whether the recent euphoria in the marketplace continues…or reverses in any material way.Nov 12, 2024
Nvidia Is Still The Most Important Issue For The Stock Market
Nvidia (NVDA) is almost 23% of the SMH semiconductor ETF. The rest of this key leadership group has been lagging badly since mid-summer. So, next week’s earnings from NVDA are going to be even more important than usual!Nov 11, 2024
Bitcoin Is Getting Somewhat Overbought...but Does It Matter?
The breakout in Bitcoin has been dramatic. We DO need to point out that it’s getting overbought. HOWEVER, it has also become much more overbought before it has topped out several times in the past. Therefore, it looks like it could run quite a bit more over the near-term.Nov 10, 2024
Bullish Policies...Expensive Market...Higher Yields
President Trump's proposals are seen as being very bullish for the economy. That had better be true...or the market will face big headwinds in 2025.Nov 8, 2024
Believe It Or Not, Watching The Yen Will Be Key For The Rest Of This Year
The Japanese yen is key to the "carry trade" and the "carry trade" is key for measuring net liquidity in the system. So it will be very important going forward.Nov 7, 2024
Strong Rally, But Some Moves Were A Bit Extreme
The response to President Trump’s election was obviously very bullish in the stock market. However, some of the moves in the marketplace were a bit too extreme on a short-term basis…and thus they should not be chased over the near-term.Nov 6, 2024
The "Set Up" for the Stock Market is MUCH Different Than it was in 2016
The S&P was trading at 18x forward earnings and 1.8x sales on Election Day in 2016. Today, it’s at 22x and 3x respectively. Therefore, investors should be careful in assuming that a post election rally will last as long as it did in 2016.Nov 5, 2024
Please Vote!
We strongly believe that there will be plenty of uncertainty left in the marketplace in the weeks ahead…due to the crisis in the Middle East…even if we get some definitive and quick answers to the questions surrounding the 2024 election.Nov 4, 2024
The Usual Year-End Election Year Rally is Not a Lock This Year
The S&P 500 has rallied 38% in the past year…but only 1% of that move has come since mid-July.....The situation in the Middle East is still escalating further.Nov 2, 2024
The Uncertainty Will Not End After The Election
The uncertainty in the Middle East could be much more important than the US election.Nov 1, 2024
A "Bullish Pullback" For Bitcoin?
A pullback in Bitcoin from its all-time highs could actually turn out to be a bullish development.Oct 31, 2024
We're Still Waiting For Earnings From AI to Broaden Out
The earnings/guidance out of Microsoft & META raise some of the same questions that we heard during the last earnings season (over the summer)…when it became evident that the big jump in earnings that the chip makers have been experiencing…has not broadened out to the end users of those chips.Oct 30, 2024
All Eyes Continue to be on Tech, But the Healthcare Sector Could be at an Inflection Point
Ely Lilly is weighing on the healthcare sector this morning, but this might (repeat, might) actually provide a good buying opportunity for this defensive sector.Oct 29, 2024
What to Look For in the Charts of the Big Tech Stocks Reporting this Week
The focus is turning to the earnings/guidance of the big cap tech names. We’ve provided charts on six of them this morning. (Alphabet, Advanced Micro, Microsoft, META, Amazon & Apple.)Oct 25, 2024
Still Within the Margin Of Error
Some very interesting assumptions are being made about the stock market. Our concern is that we’ll get a repeat of 2000 (which the outcome was not known for over a month). That kind of uncertainty…in today’s environment…could cause some substantial problems.Oct 24, 2024
Are Higher Yields Finally Having An Impact on Stocks?
The rise in bond yields is finally having a bit of a negative impact on the stock market. The “next drop” in yields should be important. If (repeat, IF) it’s a quick/shallow drop, it will very likely create some stronger headwinds for stocks.Oct 23, 2024
Cracks in the Healthcare Stock Rally?
The XLV healthcare stock ETF is seeing some cracks in its chart. So, if it sees much more downside follow-through, it will raise some warning flags on this sector.Oct 22, 2024
Yesterday's Move in the Bond Market Should Definitely Raise At Least SOME Concerns for All Investors
The P/E ratio & the P/S ratio HAVE been more expensive in the past...but they've been VERY rare. Therefore, betting that his market can get to their biggest extremes ever is a dangerous plan. (Besides, those instances were followed by very bad bear markets, so it’s not something to hope for.)Oct 21, 2024
Tesla Is Tightly "Coiled" For A Big Post-Earnings Move
Tesla (TSLA) reports this Wednesday. The stock is sitting on a VERY important technical level. So, whichever way it breaks from this level should be quite important for the stock on a technical basis.Oct 20, 2024
The Four Horseman
There are reasons to think that MSFT’s earnings could be the most important report/guidance we get this season…as it should give us some important clues as to how well (or how poorly) the earnings for the AI phenomenon are broadening out.Oct 18, 2024
All That Glitters Is Gold
The yen is approaching oversold levels, so it could/should be due for a bounce soon. If that takes place, it will create some headwinds for the stock market…at least on a short-term basis.Oct 17, 2024
Small Caps And Consumer Stocks: Their Next Moves Should Be Very Important
The XLY consumer staples ETF stands at a key technical juncture. So, the directions of its next meaningful move will be very important. (Will today’s retail sales data have an impact?)Oct 16, 2024
Very Bad News Out Of ASML, But Very Bullish Developments From Bitcoin
The poor earnings/guidance out of ASML last quarter was an early warning signal that the earnings growth from the AI phenomenon was not broadening out. That led to a material correction. Will it do the same thing this time around?Oct 15, 2024
Bitcoin is Showing Signs of a New Breakout....(Very quick midday note.)
We always have to guard against head fakes, but if Bitcoin rallies much more, it will signal a breakout for the crypto.Oct 15, 2024
Are the Banks Poised For an Upside Breakout?
With the positive bank earnings this morning, the KBE bank ETF will be testing its KEY resistance level. So, if it can finally break above that level, it will be very bullish for the group…and it should be positive for the broad market as well.Oct 14, 2024
Earnings Will Be Key This Week, but Keep An Eye On The VIX Volatility Index
Earnings will be key this week, but keep an ey on the VIX volatility index. If should be a good indicator for the markets' next move.Oct 12, 2024
Earnings Season...With MANY Stocks Are At Key Junctures
We have a list of stocks that look good on the chars & thus could surprisingly outperform quite nicely in Q4.Oct 11, 2024
A Key Change In Trend For Tesla
The chart on Tesla's stock is showing clear signs of an important change in trend.Oct 10, 2024
Airline Stocks Look Quite Vulnerable After Delta's Earnings
Delta Airlines reported poor results this morning. This leaves the airline stocks quite vulnerable…given that they’re overbought and testing a key resistance level.Oct 9, 2024
Nvidia Is Close To Another Key Resistance Level
Nvidia (NVDA) is approaching another key resistance level. If that is broken, it should be quite bullish for the entire stock market.Oct 8, 2024
More Storm Clouds (and these ones are not metaphoric).
It’s not out of the question that Travelers (TRV) and the rest of the group could face some serious challenges after a long period of outperformance...if Milton doe a lot of damage…and/or yet another hurricane hits the US.Oct 7, 2024
Hi-Yo Silver, Away! (???)
Silver has been lagging gold for six months now, but if it breaks a key resistance level, it should play catch up very quickly.Oct 5, 2024
The Stock Market Acts Quite Well, But Complacency Is Too High
The stock market continues to hold up well, but expensive markets can become extremely vulnerable in times of uncertainty.Oct 4, 2024
Fasten Your Seat Belts!
We get the employment report today. This could be quite important…but it will quickly become moot if the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate in a significant way. (It’s crazy but EITHER a “melt-up” OR a “melt-down” are still both possible.)Oct 3, 2024
The Battle Lines For Crude Oil Are Very Well Drawn Right Now
Is the fact that the markets are holding up so well a bullish development...or a sign of too much complacency?Oct 2, 2024
Do We Now Have a Nice Buying Opportunity in One Key Defensive Group?
After a mild pullback over the past month, one defensive sector is starting to look very attractive once again.Oct 1, 2024
More Negative Developments, But the Market Just Keeps Chugging Along
One of the most bullish items an investor can see is when a stock, group, or market…can rally in the face of negative news. That is certainly the case today…as the market seems to be unfazed by the situation in the Middle East and the dockworkers’ strike.Sep 30, 2024
The Bank Stocks Stand at a Key Juncture
The KBE bank ETF is testing a key level…so whichever way it moves as the 4th quarter begins should be important for the group…and the entire stock market.Sep 29, 2024
It's Rare to See a Time When the Stock Market Could Either Melt Up...Or Melt down...at Any Moment.
"Interest rate cuts are not like QE programs...which provide significant stimulus to the markets almost immediately. Instead, those rate cuts take a hear or more to have a big impact."Sep 27, 2024
Who Wants To Be The Next Mayor of NYC???
Since the Civil War, only one person has been elected to another office after being elected as the Mayor of NYC......How weird is that???Sep 26, 2024
Will China + Chip Stocks = More Euphoria?
Micron’s earnings/guidance has pushed the key chip stocks we highlighted earlier this week above their resistance levels. It’s doing the same for the SMH semiconductor ETF.Sep 25, 2024
The Homebuilders Are Getting Ripe For A Well Deserved Breather After a Fabulous Run
With the bond market experiencing a “sell the news” reaction to the Fed’s outsized rate cut, the housing stocks just might see the same thing over the near-term. So, investors should be careful about chasing them up at these overbought levels…after such a fabulous run.Sep 24, 2024
Micron's Earnings Could Be Extremely Important For The Market Near-Term
Several different chip names are sitting at key technical junctures, so Micron’s (MU) earnings announcement/guidance tomorrow night could be very, very important for the tech sector…and the broad stock market.Sep 23, 2024
There Are Some More Bullish Signs For Natural Gas
Natural gas is seeing signs that it could finally be reversing to the upside. It will take a bit more upside follow-through to confirm the change in trend, but it’s getting quite close. This could/should help some key energy stocks outperform in the last quarter of the year.Sep 22, 2024
New Record Highs! Is it a Problem that the Market is Pricing-in Zero Risk of a Geopolitical Crisis?
The Middle East crisis is starting escalate at a faster rate…and the markets are ignoring it. So, if it becomes a full regional war, the stock market will become extremely vulnerable.Sep 20, 2024
All Eyes on the Small Cap Stocks
Today will be a tough one to predict due to the “quadruple witch” expiration. However, as we move into next week…and into October…the key for the overall stock market should be whether the small-cap Russell 2000 can break meaningfully above its summer highs or not.Sep 19, 2024
The Fed Goes Big....Don't Disregard the Energy Stocks.
The crisis in the Middle East is reaching a “new phase.” This is something that should help the beaten down energy sector to outperform over the rest of this year.Sep 18, 2024
Foget the Fed.....Beware of a Yankees World Series Victory!
For the first time in a very long-time, there is a question about what the Fed is going to do with their rate announcement on the eve of their meeting. This could create more volatility than usual…once the decision (and guidance) is announced.Sep 17, 2024
Is One Key Tech Stock About to Shift from Underperforming to Outperforming?
"One important tech stock spent much of the second half of the summer underperforming. However, it’s recent action might be telling us that it will outperform quite nicely in the weeks and months ahead."Sep 16, 2024
All Eyes On The Fed....Negative News For Apple
The narrative surrounding how big this week’s short-term rate cut will be…has suddenly changed significantly. This might not be enough to soften the markets’ reactions to the upcoming announcement.Sep 14, 2024
Don't Get Too Complacent Just Yet.
"The seeds of the next recession have already been sown…in the same way they have been in the past."Sep 13, 2024
Up Next: The Fed...but Continue to Watch the Chip Stocks
We’re still concerned that the chip stocks continue to lag (which they did again yesterday). So, although the Fed rate decision next week will be key, the action in this group will still be extremely important going forward. This group’s performance needs to improve.Sep 12, 2024
Apple Stands at a KEY Technical Level
A lot of different issues continue to be the focus for investors…with next week’s Fed rate decision at/near the top of the list. However, the tech stocks are still THE key indicator for the broad stock market. So, we will continue to watch it VERY closely as we move through September and October.Sep 11, 2024
What Is Suddenly Up With The Financial Sector???
It was quite astonishing to hear so about many DIFFERENT headwinds that the financial sector is suddenly facing. If these many different problems become bigger ones, it’s going to raise some serious questions about whether the U.S. economy will indeed see a soft landing.Sep 10, 2024
How Important is the Shape of the Yield Curve?
History tells us that the recent change in shape of the yield curve IS very important. However, we have to wait so see if this change in shape becomes sustainable now…or at some point in the future.Sep 9, 2024
Keep Your Eyes Peeled To The TV This Week!
When it comes to global growth, one index has been a very good indicator over the years. Therefore, we’ll be watching this index very closely over the coming weeks and months.Sep 8, 2024
Merely Avoiding a Recession Will Not Be Enough to Keep the Stock Market Elevated For Long
The stock market is NOT pricing in a “soft landing.” It’s pricing in a very strong economy!....So, it won't take a recession to cause the stock market to correct in a meaningful way before too long.Sep 6, 2024
It's All About The Jobs Report Today (Duh).
Since BOTH the stock AND bond markets stand at key technical levels, the potential for some decisive moves in the marketplace today is quite high……Hold onto your hats!Sep 5, 2024
Friday's Employment Report Could Actually Be More Important For Fixed Income Investors
Whether it signals lower inflation OR higher odds of a recession…it will be bullish for the bond market either way…if (repeat, IF) it’s something that pushes the 10yr yield below 3.8% in any significant manner.Sep 4, 2024
The Tech Sector Just Got Hit with the Second Part of a One-Two Punch
It is evident that the earnings growth from the AI phenomenon is not broadening out quickly. NOW, we learned that the earnings growth for the AI chip makers might fade.Sep 3, 2024
Can The Consumer Continue To Hold Up?
The consumer discretionary stocks have lagged the S&P 500 during the bounce of the past few weeks. Whether it can play catch-up or not going forward should be important.Sep 1, 2024
Heading Into "Scary Season" With Lots Of Upside Momentum. Will It Last???
The "Fed put" could hold things up for longer, but fundamentals and valuations DO matter in the long run.Aug 29, 2024
Is the Yield Curve Still an Important Indicator?
The real history surrounding the “inverted yield curve” issue is finally getting some more attention around Wall Street. So, it will be interesting to see how the markets react if/when the yield curve moves meaningfully back into positive territory.Aug 28, 2024
Let's Hope That We're Not Waiting For Godot
"Those who want to make negative bets (or further negative bets) on the dollar and/or dollar related assets…could/should get a better opportunity after a near-term bounce in the greenback."Aug 27, 2024
Microsoft is Lagging Badly. What Does This Mean for the Enthusiasm Surrounding the AI Phenomenon?
Microsoft’s stock has been lagging badly during the recent bounce. We’ll be watching two key levels for clues as to whether this important stock can play catch up….or if it fails.Aug 26, 2024
Nvidia's Earnings Are Not The Only Item To Focus On This Week
Despite the underperformance in recent months, the energy sector’s trend of “higher-lows/higher-highs” remains intact…and there are reasons to think that this group can surprise everybody and outperform over the rest of this year.Aug 25, 2024
Can the Small Cap Stock Finally Outperform in a Sustainable Fashion?
The "internals" for the Russell 2000 during Friday's big jump were spectacular. This just might be a sign that the small caps can finally outperform over a sustainable period of time.Aug 23, 2024
It's All About Jackson Hole Today
We saw something in the action of the tech sector yesterday that might (repeat, MIGHT) be telling us that they’re in for some weakness…at least over the near-term.Aug 21, 2024
Wait, what? Did the Stock Market Actually Go Down Yesterday???
We still think the action during the "next dip" will be key. We just need a "next dip" to actually take place...so that we can figure out what's next!Aug 20, 2024
The Energy Stocks Look Attractive At Current Levels
The energy stocks have underperformed the stock market during this bounce...even though crude oil has remained range-bound. This is creating a nice buying opportunity.Aug 19, 2024
Can the Housing Stocks Keep Rallying?
Lower mortgage rates have not helped the Housing Starts data. Will it help the home sales data? Whether it does or not could/should be very important for the housing sector…AND for the general economy as well.Aug 17, 2024
The Bulls Are Back In Charge. Will It Last?
The stock market still faces many headwinds, but momentum can be a very powerful force....Longer-term, we looking at a deep correction...that begins within 6-9 months.Aug 16, 2024
The Democratic Convention Could Be Very Important For One Key Group Next Week
We’ll be watching to see if one issue becomes a cornerstone for VP Harris’s campaign. If it does, it could/should have an important impact on one key group in the stock market.Aug 15, 2024
The Next 7 Trading Days Should Be Crucial For The Stock Market
We're skeptical about the further upside potential for stocks, BUT we ARE seeing some signs in the charts that this bounce could have some legs, but we’ll have to see more upside follow-through for confirmation.Aug 14, 2024
The U.S. 10-Year Note Yield Stands at a Critical Level
As for the bond market…on the technical side of things…the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is sitting at a critical level on its longer-term chart.Aug 13, 2024
When The Unwinding Of The "Carry Trade" Comes To An End, It Will Not End The Headwinds Facing The Stock Market
We now have an extremely important support level for one particular ETF to keep a VERY close eye on. If (repeat, IF) it is broken in any meaningful way, it will signal that we have a lot more downside potential for this decline in the stock market before it bottoms.Aug 7, 2024
My View From a Distance
All too often, the first sharp decline is merely a warning signal of something worse down the road when it comes to the markets. (Warren Buffett didn't sell half his AAPL position because he thought it was going higher.)Aug 2, 2024
Change In Trend For The Markets? (Very Likely.)
The issues we have been warning about are all coming to a head. This will make a move to new all-time highs in the stock market difficult to achieve this year.Aug 2, 2024
Mighty Mouse Is Not Here To Save the Day This Time
The earnings from Apple and Amazon have not saved the day (like they did last quarter)….If the major averages see any more downside follow-through, it will confirm a change in trend for the stock market.Aug 1, 2024
One Group Has Become Poised For An Important Breakout!
One key group…that is far away from the tech sector…is poised for a very strong breakout move. It could also provide some protection from a decline in other sectors!Jul 31, 2024
It's Not Just The Tech Sector and the Fed.
There are other very important issues to consider that just the tech sector & the Fed. One could have an extremely important impact on how much net liquidity will be available in the global system in the weeks and months ahead.Jul 30, 2024
Don't Ignore Former Fed Officials
Former Fed officials don't make important public comments without a lot of thought...so ignoring their comments can be a big mistake.Jul 29, 2024
Critical Week
No matter what happens between now and the end of the year for the Russell 2000, it is becoming very overbought on a near-term basis. Therefore, investors need to be careful about being aggressive in this space over the short-term.Jul 26, 2024
Next Week Should Be Critical For the Stock Market
With more big-tech earnings, the Fed meeting, and the S&P and Nasdaq at key support levels...next week is going to be a critical one for the stock market.Jul 26, 2024
Nancy Outmaneuvers Barak
How many people realize that the S&P 500, the NDX Nasdaq 100…AND the Russell 2000…have all declined over the past seven trading days? This raises questions about how long the small cap space can hold up if (repeat, IF) the tech stocks continue to decline.Jul 25, 2024
More Evidence That This Might Be A Key Turning Point For The Markets
Several developments (both fundamental & technical) are telling us we could be seeing a key turning point for the markets.....This is especially true given that one key sector is showing signs of an important change in its intermediate-term trend (not just its short-term one.)Jul 24, 2024
Where's The Beef???
There are some more early signs that the MASSIVE investment into AI is not producing revenues/profits as quickly as the stock market has been pricing in over the past year.Jul 23, 2024
Is The Recent Pullback In Tech Something More Than April's Mild Decline?
Earnings and (more importantly) guidance should still be the most important mover of the stock market over the coming weeks...especially for the tech sector.Jul 22, 2024
It Won't Take Long For The Focus To Turn Back Towards This Earnings Season
President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. This is big news…but it does not mean that investors won’t have to pay attention to the current earnings season…or the escalating conflict in the Middle East…or the fact that global technology system partially shut down last week.Jul 21, 2024
The Stock Market Has Become MUCH More Fragile Over The Past Week
The huge technology outage and the tariff proposal on chips...have made this very expensive stock market more vulnerable over the past week.Jul 19, 2024
Has The "Rotation" Move Ended Aleady???
We have another chart this morning which shows that a key leadership group is showing signs that it is rolling over. So, if it sees much more weakness over the coming days and weeks, it will raise a big warning flag.Jul 18, 2024
As Tech Goes...So Goes The Rest Of The Stock Market
We’re sorry, these big-cap tech names are just too heavily weighted in the S&P 500 and NDX 100…for them not to have a significant effect on the rest of the market to the downside…just like they did to the upside from October of 2022 to this summer.Jul 17, 2024
Beware of UFO's (UnForeseen Occurances)
If the tech stocks see a sustainable decline due to the new-news out of the Biden Administration, investors will likely start "rotating" towards cash.Jul 16, 2024
The Small-Cap Stocks Are Getting Quite Overbought
The Russell 2000 is getting quite overbought, so investors need to be careful about chasing these names over the near-term.Jul 15, 2024
Our Focus Is Still On This Earnings Season.
We believe that this earnings season...especially the earnings guidance that will be provided...will be more important than the assassination attempt...for the direction of the stock market over the coming weeks/months.Jul 13, 2024
If the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Meaningfully, History Tells Us That It Will be Negative for Stocks, NOT positive!
If interest rates decline in a meaningful way, it will indicate a significant slowdown in the economy, NOT lower inflation. THAT will be negative for stocks.Jul 12, 2024
A "Rotational" Move is NOT the Same as a "Broadening Out" move!
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 WILL decline substantially if the large-cap tech stocks decline in a significant way…for the simple reason that these stocks are SO highly weighted in those indices.Jul 11, 2024
Two Indices & One Big Stock: All Three are Quite Overbought Near-Term
The S&P 500 and the NDX Nasdaq 100 are seeing the kind of overbought conditions that we have not seen since September 2020…just before a correction. Therefore, the stock market could/should be vulnerable to any material negative news we might get over the near-term.Jul 10, 2024