History tells us that the recent change in shape of the yield curve IS very important.  However, we have to wait so see if this change in shape becomes sustainable now…or at some point in the future.

When it comes to global growth, one index has been a very good indicator over the years.  Therefore, we’ll be watching this index very closely over the coming weeks and months.

Since BOTH the stock AND bond markets stand at key technical levels, the potential for some decisive moves in the marketplace today is quite high……Hold onto your hats!

Whether it signals lower inflation OR higher odds of a recession…it will be bullish for the bond market either way…if (repeat, IF) it’s something that pushes the 10yr yield below 3.8% in any significant manner.