Weekend Insights

We're sorry, but you cannot unwind the massive corporate & market leverage that has built up due to "free money" over the past 15 years...with a just mild recession and a run-of-the-mill bear market.

After an extremely calm an uneventful two weeks for the stock market, the realities of the slowing economy (and the lower earnings that will go with it) are going to create serious headwinds for investors.

The broad stock market is holding up, but we now have a lot more developments (besides just the bond market) that are pointing towards a pending recession.

Renewed liquidity injections have helped buoy the market. We question whether that liquidity will continue. As investors realize that we're headed for a hard landing, the investment landscape will change. (The bond market is already telling us this.)

The mini-banking crisis shows that the damage has already been done from the tightening cycle. A "pause" or a "pivot" is not going to prevent a recession.....Bear markets (that include recessions) never bottom until the S&P 500 becomes undervalued.